Severn Estuary Commission: Socio Economics Workstream

The Severn Estuary sits at the heart of the Western Gateway Partnership’s geography and has long been recognised for its potential to generate renewable energy. Whilst a variety of potential projects have been proposed, none have yet progressed to implementation. Given the increased demand for electricity, the need for energy security, and climate change adaptation, the Severn Estuary Commission  has been established to consider afresh the feasibility of developing tidal range energy projects in the Severn.

Research focus

Drawing on our experience of assessing the socio-economic impacts of large scale low carbon energy projects (including new nuclear, offshore wind and tidal range) we were appointed to lead a team of consultants (Hardisty Jones, Oxford Economics, and Arcadis) to provide:

• An assessment of the supply chain, jobs, skills and business opportunities arising from tidal energy projects; how these can be maximised; and the potential synergies and conflicts with other projects and sectors;
• Analysis of the wider economic effects, particularly on other sectors reliant on the estuary, resulting from tidal range power development; and how positive impacts can be maximised and negative effects mitigated or minimised; and
• Assessment of potential community level impacts in and around the Severn Estuary arising from tidal energy generation schemes.

Our work is a key input to the Commissioners’ recommendations to UK and Welsh Governments.

The research was focused on six potential tidal range projects, considering the relevant impacts on the Severn Estuary area, wider Wales and South West England regions, and the UK as a whole.

Figure 1: Selected potential tidal range options

Our work involved reviewing the existing evidence base surrounding Severn Estuary tidal power generation options, economic modelling, consultation with almost 40 stakeholders, and supplementary desk research to draw out lessons from other schemes.

Key findings

Supply chain, jobs and skills

Our work, alongside previous studies, found the expansion of the renewable energy sector, particularly through tidal range projects, presents significant supply chain opportunities for the Severn Estuary area, wider regions and UK.

Whilst there are opportunities with tidal range power, it is recognised that the current supply chain is limited and needs substantial investment to scale-up, particularly turbine manufacturing and assembly.  There are some particular challenges associated with the scale of expansion required to deliver a large barrage, with substantial stakeholder support for a series of tidal lagoons which would allow the supply chain to expand over time, and spread impact over decades.

The report notes there are longer-term opportunities arising from investment in tidal range energy activities within the Severn Estuary area and the UK. Opportunities are expected to be concentrated in the development and export of knowledge and expertise rather than large-scale, ongoing production for a global market.

Wider economic effects

Our work showed there could be both positive and negative impacts on other sectors that rely on the estuary should tidal range infrastructure be delivered.

The impacts on ports are likely to be the most significant, given their role as critical economic infrastructure supporting a large number of jobs and substantial GVA across the Severn Estuary and wider regional area. The Cardiff-Weston Barrage is noted to pose the greatest risk given its scale and location. Some further work is required to fully understand how the hydrodynamic changes arising from tidal lagoons might impact shipping and navigation.

There are expected to be tourism and leisure opportunities associated with tidal lagoons or barrages, however, set against other impacts these are fairly modest and would require additional investment to realise.

Community impacts

Alongside economic impacts, there are potential social and community impacts including community level changes resulting from delivering large scale infrastructure projects as well as potential changes to flood and coastal erosion risk.

The research concluded there is no reason for communities to fear large scale infrastructure development as long as impacts are well managed through advance planning and ongoing monitoring and management. The Hinkley Point C new nuclear build is one of the largest infrastructure construction projects in Europe and has led to a range of positive impacts in terms of skills and supply chain, whilst minimising the vast majority of potential adverse social impacts (e.g. housing market disruption and extra demands on local services).

Developing tidal lagoons or barrages in the estuary could deliver improvements to flood risk in some areas, although impacts could be negative in others. The research found much of the existing analysis is now out of date and does not consider the latest design approaches or technical guidance.  Technological improvements are likely to lead to greater levels of flood risk benefits than have been previously considered.

Conclusions

The expansion of the renewable energy sector, particularly through tidal range projects, presents significant supply chain and employment opportunities for the Severn Estuary area, wider regions, and UK. However, capitalising on these requires strategic action and coordination from UK and Welsh Governments along with other stakeholders. This especially important given the renewable energy sector is facing a significant skills shortage, and the supply chain would need substantial enhancement to maximise beneficial impacts in the UK.

If you would like to talk to us about how we can support your efforts in evaluating the potential impacts of large-scale development or of renewable energy infrastructure, please get in touch with Stuart using the project lead contact details provided below.